Assessment of gully erosion on the territory of Tomsk using GIS technologies

ISSN 2307-2091 (Print) 

ISSN 2500-2414 (Online)


A. V. Leonova, L. A. Strokova / News of the Ural State Mining University. 2021. Issue 1(61), pp. 74-86


Relevance and purpose of the work. Currently, the area of development of Tomsk is increasing. New neighborhoods
are growing on previously undeveloped land (for example, on the left bank of the river Tom). The central part of the
city is being redeveloped and reconstructed. It is impossible to develop a high-quality territory without taking into
account the dynamics, mechanisms, factors and patterns of development of dangerous natural and technological
processes, the forecast of their development. The purpose of the work is to establish the patterns of gully erosion,
assess the intensity of its development, and predict the probability of its occurrence within the new city boundaries.
Methods of research. We performed an assessment and forecast of the development of gully erosion in Tomsk using
GIS technologies, which are an important tool in the city management process due to their ability to process and
analyze multidimensional data about the geological environment. We compared the traditional model of data-driven
frequency ratio (FR) and expert-based multi-criteria assessment, i.e. analytical hierarchical process by weighting of
gulley conditioning factors.
Results of the work. We constructed a map of the distribution of gullies on the territory of the city, including 23
polygons. These polygons were then randomly divided into training (16 polygons or 70%) and validation data (7
polygons or 30%). We used seven gulley-conditioning factors for the two models to produce gulley susceptibility
maps: slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, elevation, geological structure of the territory; types of filtration sections;
distance to the river, to analyze the spatial patterns that determine the development of gully erosion. The spatial
correlation between gulley locations and the conditioning factors were identified using GIS-based statistical models.
We constructed gulley susceptibility maps based on the ranking of each factor by two methods using a training data
set. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to validate the resulting susceptibility maps. The area under
the curve (AUC) was 0.905 for the AHP model and 0,800 for the FR model, respectively, which indicates excellent
and high quality of forecast maps. We proved that both methods are beneficial for assessment the susceptibility of the
territory to gully erosion.
We recommend using the constructed maps for regional planning and hazard mitigation, as well as in education by
teaching the discipline “Engineering geodynamics”.

Keywords: gulley, susceptibility, mapping, frequency ratio, analytical hierarchical process, ROC curve analysis.



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