V. N. Podkorytov, L. A. Mochalova / News of the Ural State Mining University. 2021. Issue 1(61), pp. 142-149
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Relevance. The stock exchange prices of shares reflect the view from the market position of the value of a particular
public company: the market capitalization of the issuing company acts as a value indicator. The volatility of stock
prices, on the other hand, determines the dynamics of market capitalization. In this regard, the problem of market
capitalization management and its forecasting in the future becomes urgent. Taking into account the raw materials
orientation of the Russian economy, enterprises of the mineral raw materials complex are of particular interest from
the point of view of value management.
The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant external and internal cost factors affecting the market
capitalization of the largest oil companies in Russia, and to calculate promising cost management models.
Research methods. In the process of studying value factors on the basis of retrospective statistical data and methods
of correlation analysis were used.
Results. The correlation analysis of the following variables was carried out: price per 1 share of an oil company observed
on the Moscow Exchange; the price of Brent crude oil; revenues from sales; operating profit; net profit; company
assets; equity capital of the company. Based on the analysis, the factors with the highest correlation coefficients were
selected in relation to the dependent variable “price per 1 share of an oil company observed on the Moscow Exchange”,
as well as with relatively low values of pair correlation coefficients directly with each other in order to avoid the
effect of multicollinearity. The variables included in the model are: the price of Brent crude; revenues from sales;
operating profit; company assets; equity capital of the company. Linear regression models have been constructed for
PAO Rosneft, PAO Lukoil, and PAO Tatneft.
Conclusions. A detailed analysis of the obtained linear regression models taking into account the correlation coefficients,
t-statistics, significance level values (P-values), determination coefficients R2, calculated values of F-criteria showed
generally conflicting results. The most significant models are single-factor price models, in which sales revenue acts
as an independent variable. Other models require their refinement through careful analysis and more observations. It
is planned to continue research and search for cost factors that affect the change in market capitalization not only for
oil companies but for other enterprises of the mineral resource complex as well.
Keywords: market capitalization, oil company, external cost factors, internal cost factors, correlation analysis,
regression model.
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